Analysis of lifetime mortality trajectories in wildlife disease research: BaSTA and Beyond

This is the final version. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record. Wildlife hosts are important reservoirs of a wide range of human and livestock infections worldwide, and in some instances, wildlife populations are threatened by disease. Yet wildlife diseases are difficult to monitor, and we often lack an understanding of basic epidemiological parameters that might inform disease management and the design of targeted interventions. The impacts of disease on host survival are generally associated with age, yet traditional epidemiological models tend to use simplistic categories of host age. Mortality trajectory analysis provides the opportunity to understand age-specific impacts of disease and uncover epidemiological patterns across complete life histories. Here, we use Bayesian survival trajectory analysis (BaSTA) software to analyse capture-mark-recapture data from a population of wild badgers Meles meles naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of tuberculosis in badgers and cattle. We reveal non-constant mortality trajectories, and show that infection exaggerates an age-dependent increase in late-life mortality. This study provides evidence for actuarial senescence in badgers, a species previously believed to display constant mortality throughout life. Our case study demonstrates the application of mortality trajectory analysis in wildlife disease research, but also highlights important limitations. We recommend BaSTA for mortality trajectory analysis in epidemiological research, but also suggest combining approaches that can include diagnostic uncertainty and the movement of hosts between disease states as they age. We recommend future combinations of multi-state and multi-event modelling frameworks for complex systems incorporating age-varying disease states.NERCthe Animal and Plant Health AgencyUniversity of ExeterDepartment for Environment, Food and Rural Affair

Multi-locus homozygosity promotes actuarial senescence in a wild mammal.

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi. org/10.5061/dryad.bk3j9kdg6 (Hudson, 2023)Genome-wide homozygosity, caused for example by inbreeding, is expected to have deleterious effects on survival and/or reproduction. Evolutionary theory predicts that any fitness costs are likely to be detected in late life because natural selection will filter out negative impacts on younger individuals with greater reproductive value. Here we infer associations between multi-locus homozygosity (MLH), sex, disease and age-dependent mortality risks using Bayesian analysis of the life histories of wild European badgers Meles meles in a population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis [bTB]). We find important effects of MLH on all parameters of the Gompertz-Makeham mortality hazard function, but particularly in later life. Our findings confirm the predicted association between genomic homozygosity and actuarial senescence. Increased homozygosity is particularly associated with an earlier onset, and greater rates of actuarial senescence, regardless of sex. The association between homozygosity and actuarial senescence is further amplified among badgers putatively infected with bTB. These results recommend further investigation into the ecological and behavioural processes that result in genome-wide homozygosity, and focused work on whether homozygosity is harmful or beneficial during early life-stages.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Animal and Plant Health AgencyExpanding Excellence in EnglandUniversity of Exete

Impact of screening on cervical cancer incidence: A population-based case-control study in the United States.

Cervical cancer is widely preventable through screening, but little is known about the duration of protection offered by a negative screen in North America. A case-control study was conducted with records from population-based registries in New Mexico. Cases were women diagnosed with cervical cancer in 2006-2016, obtained from the Tumor Registry. Five controls per case from the New Mexico HPV Pap Registry were matched to cases by sex, age and place of residence. Dates and results of all cervical screening and diagnostic tests since 2006 were identified from the pap registry. We estimated the odds ratio of nonlocalized (Stage II+) and localized (Stage I) cervical cancer associated with attending screening in the 3 years prior to case-diagnosis compared to women not screened in 5 years. Of 876 cases, 527 were aged 25-64 years with ≥3 years of potential screening data. Only 38% of cases and 61% of controls attended screening in a 3-year period. Women screened in the 3 years prior to diagnosis had 83% lower risk of nonlocalized cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.12-0.24) and 48% lower odds of localized cancer (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.38-0.72), compared to women not screened in the 5 years prior to diagnosis. Women remained at low risk of nonlocalized cancer for 3.5-5 years after a negative screen compared to women with no negative screens in the 5 years prior to diagnosis. Routine cervical screening is effective at preventing localized and nonlocalized cervical cancers; 3 yearly screening prevents 83% of nonlocalized cancers, with no additional benefit of more frequent screening. Increasing screening coverage remains essential to further reduce cervical cancer incidence.This work was supported by the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) U54CA164336 to CMW (CMW, CLW, MR) with subcontracts to Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas (YJM, DWG) and to University of Alabama at Birmingham (ICS) and by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases U19AI113187 to CMW with subcontract to Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) (JC, PDS). This project was also supported by Contract HHSN261201800014I, Task Order HHSN26100001 from the National Cancer Institute (CLW). In addition, support was received from Cancer Research UK programme grants C8161/A1689 to PDS (RL, CM) and C569/A16891 to JC, from NCI P30CA118100 (to CL Willman) (YJM) and the Ford Foundation (YJM)

Importance sampling and Bayesian model comparison in ecology and evolution

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Data availability statement: All code and data presented in this manuscript are available via Zenodo (Hudson, 2023).Bayesian approaches to the modelling of ecological systems are increasingly popular, but there are competing methods for formal model comparisons. Here, we focus on the task of performing multimodel inference through estimating posterior model weights, which encompasses uncertainties in the choice of competing model structure into the inference outputs. Model-based approaches such as reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJ-MCMC) are flexible and allow multimodel inference, but can be complex to implement and optimise, and so we translate a model-based approach for ecological applications using Importance Sampling to estimate the marginal likelihood of the data given a particular model. This approach allows for model comparison through the estimation of Bayes' Factors or interpretable posterior model probabilities, yielding model weights that facilitate multimodel inference through Bayesian model averaging. We demonstrate Importance Sampling with two case study investigations in animal demography: censused analysis of banded mongoose (Mungos mungo) survival where missing data are uncommon, and capture–mark–recapture analysis of European badger (Meles meles) survival where data are commonly missing. We compare outcomes of the model comparison using the Importance Sampling approach to those obtained through single-model inference approaches using Deviance information criteria and the Watanabe–Akaike information criteria. The results of the Importance Sampling method aligns with RJ-MCMC model comparisons while often being more straightforward to fit and optimise, particularly if the competing models are non-nested.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Animal and Plant Health AgencyUniversity of Exete

Effect of prolonged HAART on oral colonization with Candida and candidiasis

BACKGROUND: Progressive cell-mediated immunodeficiency with decrease of CD4+ lymphocyte count to less than or equal to 200 cells/mm(3 )is a major risk factor for colonization with Candida species and development of candidiasis. Oropharyngeal candidiasis may occur in up to 90% of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients during the course of the disease. This study is to determine the effect of prolonged highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on oropharyngeal colonization with Candida species and oral candidiasis. METHODS: A prospective, longitudinal follow-up study in HIV-infected patients receiving HAART. RESULTS: The mean CD4+ count increased from 232.5 to 316 cells/mm(3 )and the proportion of patients whose CD4+ count less than 200 cells/mm(3 )decreased from 50.0% to 28.9% (p = 0.0003) in patients receiving HAART for at least 2 years. The prevalence of oral candidiasis decreased from 10.6% to 2.1% (p = 0.004). The decrease in Candida colonization was less impressive, falling from 57.8% to 46.5 % (p = 0.06). Of the 142 patients enrolled in at least two surveys, 48 (33.8%) remained colonized with Candida and 42 (29.6%) remained negative. In the remaining 52 patients, 34 switched from culture positive to negative, and an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes was noted in 91.2% of them. Among the 18 patients who switched from culture negative to positive, 61.1% also demonstrated an increase in CD4+ lymphocyte count (p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that HAART is highly effective in decreasing oral candidiasis in association with a rise in CD4+ lymphocyte counts, but only marginally effective in eliminating Candida from the oropharynx

Effects of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms on Human N-Acetyltransferase 2 Structure and Dynamics by Molecular Dynamics Simulation

BACKGROUND: Arylamine N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) is an important catalytic enzyme that metabolizes the carcinogenic arylamines, hydrazine drugs and chemicals. This enzyme is highly polymorphic in different human populations. Several polymorphisms of NAT2, including the single amino acid substitutions R64Q, I114T, D122N, L137F, Q145P, R197Q, and G286E, are classified as slow acetylators, whereas the wild-type NAT2 is classified as a fast acetylator. The slow acetylators are often associated with drug toxicity and efficacy as well as cancer susceptibility. The biological functions of these 7 mutations have previously been characterized, but the structural basis behind the reduced catalytic activity and reduced protein level is not clear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed multiple molecular dynamics simulations of these mutants as well as NAT2 to investigate the structural and dynamical effects throughout the protein structure, specifically the catalytic triad, cofactor binding site, and the substrate binding pocket. None of these mutations induced unfolding; instead, their effects were confined to the inter-domain, domain 3 and 17-residue insert region, where the flexibility was significantly reduced relative to the wild-type. Structural effects of these mutations propagate through space and cause a change in catalytic triad conformation, cofactor binding site, substrate binding pocket size/shape and electrostatic potential. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results showed that the dynamical properties of all the mutant structures, especially in inter-domain, domain 3 and 17-residue insert region were affected in the same manner. Similarly, the electrostatic potential of all the mutants were altered and also the functionally important regions such as catalytic triad, cofactor binding site, and substrate binding pocket adopted different orientation and/or conformation relative to the wild-type that may affect the functions of the mutants. Overall, our study may provide the structural basis for reduced catalytic activity and protein level, as was experimentally observed for these polymorphisms

Preventive medical care in remote Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory: a follow-up study of the impact of clinical guidelines, computerised recall and reminder systems, and audit and feedback

Background Interventions to improve delivery of preventive medical services have been shown to be effective in North America and the UK. However, there are few studies of the extent to which the impact of such interventions has been sustained, or of the impact of such interventions in disadvantaged populations or remote settings. This paper describes the trends in delivery of preventive medical services following a multifaceted intervention in remote community health centres in the Northern Territory of Australia. Methods The intervention comprised the development and dissemination of best practice guidelines supported by an electronic client register, recall and reminder systems and associated staff training, and audit and feedback. Clinical records in seven community health centres were audited at regular intervals against best practice guidelines over a period of three years, with feedback of audit findings to health centre staff and management. Results Levels of service delivery varied between services and between communities. There was an initial improvement in service levels for most services following the intervention, but improvements were in general not fully sustained over the three year period. Conclusions Improvements in service delivery are consistent with the international experience, although baseline and follow-up levels are in many cases higher than reported for comparable studies in North America and the UK. Sustainability of improvements may be achieved by institutionalisation of relevant work practices and enhanced health centre capacity

Human Computation and Convergence

Humans are the most effective integrators and producers of information, directly and through the use of information-processing inventions. As these inventions become increasingly sophisticated, the substantive role of humans in processing information will tend toward capabilities that derive from our most complex cognitive processes, e.g., abstraction, creativity, and applied world knowledge. Through the advancement of human computation - methods that leverage the respective strengths of humans and machines in distributed information-processing systems - formerly discrete processes will combine synergistically into increasingly integrated and complex information processing systems. These new, collective systems will exhibit an unprecedented degree of predictive accuracy in modeling physical and techno-social processes, and may ultimately coalesce into a single unified predictive organism, with the capacity to address societies most wicked problems and achieve planetary homeostasis.Comment: Pre-publication draft of chapter. 24 pages, 3 figures; added references to page 1 and 3, and corrected typ